The folks over at the excellent blog Real Climate are freaking out over a very interesting paper in the Journal of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics. The paper, “Does a Global Average Temperature Exist?â€, contends that, because of the thermodynamic nature of temperature, the concept of average temperature is, at best, problematic.
The authors argue that the concept of average temperature is not meaningful:
The problem can be (and has been) happily ignored in the name of the empirical study of climate. But nature is not obliged to respect our statistical conventions and conceptual shortcuts. Debates over the levels and trends in so-called global temperatures will continue interminably, as will disputes over the significance of these things for the human experience of climate, until some physical basis is established for the meaningful measurement of climate variables, if indeed that is even possible.
First, this paper deserves credit for being in the very rare class of scientific papers that are clear, coherent, and carefully written. Second, the authors are correct that it’s not sensible, in the thermodynamic sense, to talk about average temperature. Why? Because temperature is what we call an intensive variable: it represents a quality of a system that doesn’t depend on system size. (Unlike an extensive variable, like volume or energy, that depends explicitly on system size.) You can add up the volume of a bunch of objects to find a total volume, but you can’t do that with temperature. (Two objects each at 90° do not equal one big object with a temperature of 180°!) But, for an average to mean anything, you need to be able to do that.
When we talk about temperature in the meteorological sense, we’re using it as a proxy for the internal energy of the atmosphere. But temperature is not actually — thermodynamically — a good proxy for energy, which is the source of the trouble. So the authors are correct that, regardless of the reality of climate change — and it is real — climate change deniers will continue to have ammunition if we can’t find a better defined measure of the changing earth environment. I’m not sure that the authors wouldn’t take this argument a step beyond, and claim that global warming isn’t real, but they’re nonetheless correct in their point.
I think all this stands to support the argument that it’s time to stop talking about Global Warming — a term that’s both overly simple and saddled with the baggage of politics — and start talking about Global Climate Change.